A Basic Analysis Of The Balkan Economy In Relation Essay Example For Students

A Basic Analysis Of The Balkan Economy In Relation Essay To The E 12 Angry Men EssayThere are two opposite theoriesregarding inflation. Monetarism indicates that inflation is due to increasesin the supply of money. The classic example of this relationship is theinflation that followed an inflow of gold and silver into Europe, resultingfrom the Spanish conquest of the Americas. According to monetarists, theonly way to cure inflation is by government action to reduce growth ofthe money supply. At the other end is the cost-pushtheory. Cost-pushers believe that the source of inflation is the rate ofwage increases. They believe that wage increases are independent of alleconomic factors, and generally are determined by workers and trade unions. More specifically, inflation occurs when the wages demanded by trade unionsand workers add up to more than the economy is capable of producing. Cost-pushers advocate limiting the power of trade unions and using income policiesto help fight off inflation. In between the cost-push and monetarismtheory is Keynesianism. Keynesians recognize the importance of both themoney supply and wage rates in determining inflation. They sometimes adviseusing monetary and incomes policies as complimentary measures to reduceinflation, but most often rely on fiscal policy as the cure. Before we can understand the policiessuggested by these different schools of thought, we must look at the historicaldevelopment of our understanding of inflation. For approximately 200 years beforeJohn Maynard Keynes wrote the General Theory of Employment, Interest ,and Money, there was a broad agreement among economists as to the sourcesof inflationary pressure, known as the quantity theory of money2. The Quantitytheory of money is easily understood through fishers equation MV=PY (money supply times velocity of circulation of money equals price timesreal income)Quantity theorists believe thatover an extended period of time the size of M, the money supply, cannotaffect the overall economic output, Y. They also assume that for all practicalpurposes V was constant because short term variations in the circulationsof money are short lived, and long term changes in the velocity ofcirculation are so small as to be inconsequential . Lastly, this theoryrests on the belief that the supply of money is in no way determined bythe economic output or the demand for money itself. The central prediction that cannow be made is that changes in the money supply will lead to equiproportionatechanges in prices. If the money supply goes up then individuals initiallyfind themselves with more money. Normally individuals will tend to spendmost of their excess money. The attempt of people to buy more than theynormally do must result in the bidding up of prices because of the competitivenature of the market, inflation. Also essential to the quantity theoryis the belief that in a competitive market, where wages and prices arefree to fluctuate, there would be an automatic tendency for the marketto correct itself and full employment to be established. In figure 1, w stands for the realwage rate (the amount of goods and services that an individuals money incomecan buy), L d for the demand for labor and L s for the supply for labor. Suppose now that the economic system inherited a real wage rate w 1, Thesupply of labor is L s1 while the demand for labor is only L d1. At thispoint there is substantial unemployment because labor is costly for employersto buy. According to Classicalists, The existence of an excess supply oflabor will lead to a competitive struggle between the unemployed and employedfor the available jobs. This struggle will lead to a reduction of realwages, thus employers will begin hiring more workers. Eventually competitionwill drive down wages to an equilibrium called labor- arket clearance,where the demand and supply for labor is equal; this is We Le. Classicalistsdefine Labor market clearance as the point of full employment. Thus, persistentunemployment can only be explained by a mechanism which interferes witha competitive market. They specifically blame monopolistic trade unionsfor preventing the wage rate from falling to We. Unions may use manythreatening tactics to fight wage cuts. Those m ost effective mentionedin the textbooks are collective bargaining and strikes. The Great depression, as experiencedby the US and the countries of western Europe, cast a shadow over the Classicalapproach to economics3. The self-righting properties of classical economicswere clearly not working when wages and unemployment failed to decrease. Blaming trade unions for these massive increases in unemployment seemedfar fetched. John Maynard Keynes was the firstwriter to produce a non-classical, coherent, and convincing explanationof the inter-war depression. He traced the sources of unemployment to adeficiency of effective demand. Put simply, unemployment occurred whentotal spending on output was not enough to fully employ the available workforce. Effective demand, called expenditures, was split into two groups by Keynes,consumption and investment. Consumption, the purchase of goods and services,far outweighed investment as the major component of effective demand. At the theories core lay Keynesbelief that an economies total production, Y, will eventually adapt itselfto changes expenditures. Moreover Keynes argued that the equilibrium ofwages exist when the output of producers is equal to the amount that consumersand investors are willing to spend on their output. Consider figure 2 Total expenditure,that is the sum of consumption and investment , is measured on the verticaland real income on the horizontal. For practical purposes investment willremain a constant in the graph and be represented by line I. If we addthe consumption function and the investment line, we get the the sum totalexpenditures, line E (E = C+I). For any given amount of expenditures,Y can be located anywhere for a short time. If Y is above E, then producersare simply accumulating unsold stocks of goods. Eventually they will beforced to cut back on production until they can sell their existing stocks,earning capital enough capital to restart production. Conversely, If Yis below E, producers will be selling out of goods. Normally they willincrease production as soon as possible to catch up to the demand and makethe most profit. This is where, the 45 line comes into use. Y, accordingto Keynes, will shift to the point where E intersects the 45 line. When Y intersects E at the 45 line, there is an equilibrium between expendituresand total output, and wages are stable. In order to illustrate how Keynesprinciple of effective demand accounts for unemployment, let us assumethat the economy starts off at full employment where Ld (demand for labor)equals Ls (supply). The label of the output necessary to sustain full employmentis Yf, f denoting full employment. If expenditures were smaller than Yf,than Yf would adjust itself to the left on the graph to accommodate forthis. Because the level of total output has shrunk, the demand for laboralso has, and unemployment has risen correspondingly. If one accepts the Keynesian model,there are generally two things that can be done to raise the level of aggregatedemand to a point where Y adjusts to full employment. Raising governmentexpenditures, G, stimulating private investment, or lowering taxes, raisingconsumption because people will have more money to spend, will both raisethe level of aggregate demand. Both these policies come under the headingof fiscal policy, which is deliberate manipulation of the government budgetdeficit in order to achieve an economic objective. During the great depression, manypeople rejected Keynes ideas on unemployment because they were scaredto be different. The contemporary orthodox view was that cuts in the moneywages would automatically be accompanied by cuts in the real wages, thusraising employment. Classicalists prescribed the government a remedy forunemployment based on implementing money wage reductions. Keynes rejectedthis idea on both theoretical and empirical grounds. After the first World War, collectivebargaining rendered the downward flexibility of wages highly improbable. Any attempts at cutting money wages would be fiercelyresisted, as seen as the 1926 GeneralStrike in Britain painfully demonstrated. Keynes regarded the trade unionsresistance to wage cuts as a product of the rigid structure of wage differentials. This is actually just the relative position of the wages of a particulartype of labor to all others, F.E. mechanics get paid 1$,Electriciansget 2$, plumbers get 3$. If any one group received generally higher wages,other groups would surely demand higher wages to preserve the structure. On the other hand, if a single group wantonly decided to accept a wagecut, other groups would likely not follow. Therefore labor groups vehementlyresisted wage cuts. Theoretically, Keynes believed thatdrops in the money wages would eventually be accompanied by a drops inprices. This balanced deflation would bring real wages, the amount of goodsthat could be bought, to their original amount. Employers would not takeon more workers because their real revenue, amount of goods they sell,would remain unchanged. In order to fully consider this statement,we must first look at the terms used and consider their definitions withrespect to the larger content of the question. We will first consider Positive Economics. A positive economic statement is one which relies on real data, given truestatistics and related directly to a true situation. Following this, wecan say that a normative economic statement is one which is not purelyobjective although it is related to a positive economic situation. Whatthe normantive statement does is to follow on with an opinion which issubjective, biased and based purely on the personal feelings of the speaker. Positive economics is about whatis; normative economics is about what should be.Economics, John B. Taylor, HoughtonMifflin Company, 1995, p.25Now we must consider the definition ofFair. Fair: satisfactory,just, unbiased, according to the rules.The Concise Oxford Dictionary, FifthEdition, Edited by H. W. Fowler and F. G. Fowler, Oxford University Press,1964I propose to return to this deffinitionhaving discussed the first part of the question. When we are dealing with positive economics,we are strictly involved with a clinical procedure of thought and analysiswhere the thought pattern lacks the usual influence of personal bias andemotional charge. Positive economics relate explicitly to the existingsituation based on true data and real facts. It can be expressed as a birdseye view of a real given situation. Since logic is the dominant factorin this thought/perception process, it is natural for positive economicsto be described as what is, because very seldom does a situation occurwhere what is achieves the goal of what should be. The normative side of economics,unlike the birds eye view of positive economics, is a viewpoint from withina given situation. This of course directly involves the personal bias,the subjective opinion ralated to real or given data. Only when perceivinga situation from within, from a specific internal standpoint can you expressthe what should be. The positive unbiased process of factual datalacks the reality of the emotionally charged normative thought processwhere comparisons and conclusions are drawn from a basis of personal criteria. The normative statement need not necessarily be what should be,it can just as easily relate to what should not be, either positive ornegative but it will always be based on a subjective opinion brought aboutby a personal attitude to a positive economic situation. We can therefore look at the givenstatement and immediately see that, although there is undoubtably a distributionof wealth in the United Kingdom, and this is indisputably a positive economicstatement, the hypothesis that it is not fair is purely based on suppositionof the speaker and therefore a normative statement. Dealing with the word fair ingeneral provocates an emotional connotation. There is a direct link ofmeaning with equilibrium, but equilibrium can vary depending on whatangle fair is expressed from. Fair can vary greatly in accordance withits definition. If we consider the distribution of wealth in the UnitedKingdom according to the rules we must ask whose rules. If they are therules of the political party in power, then the distribution is fair. If they are the rules of a Marxist minority party, then the distributionis not fair. In both cases fair is unsed non-normatively. The opinion of the unemployed or the lowersocial orders does not count in this case, as there are no recognised rulesfor these groups of people. Any opinion offerred from them regarding fairis automatically normative. The same will apply if taking into accountthe other officially accepted definitions of the meaning of fair. Therecan be ambivalence about the objective or subjective interpretation ofthe word satisfactory. The word just can also be interpretedboth objectively in a legal connotation and subjectively in a personalconnotation. In a specific case though, for example,The distribution of income in the United Kingdom is not fair., when examinedfrom a positive point of view through the accepted definitions , one canarrive at a conclusion which may very well be Yes, the distribution isfair., but this conclusion can opnly have been derived from an omniperceptive and non-biased angle, if the word fair has been given a formallyaccepted definition. It must also relate in the particular circumstanceto the real statistical data taken into consideration, regarding the realdistribution of wealth in the United Kingdom. If this distribution of income were tobe looked at from a normative angle, there would of course not have beena conclusion such as the one above, the reason being that normative thoughtis personalized thought, and in the real world, which is what normativeeconomics deals with, ones view dramatically differs from anothers, therefore,a statement such as The distribution of income in the United Kingdom isnot fair. would sound more like an opinion rather than a scientific conclusionand would belong to the definitioin Biased and satisfactory. In conclusion to the essay questionregarding fair being used non-normatively, my view is that it is possible. Personal view or preference does not prevent one from appreciating a situationas a whole if looked at from a temporarily neutral and dispassionatestandpoint. For example, one may not particularly like the work of a certainacclaimed writer, but one can appreciate his/her works worth and qualityas an axample of literary expressionism. The given statement for the essayis undoubtably normative. It could, however, have been been madepositive, as could any other statement containing the word fair by definingthe concept of fairness within the terms relating to the reality. Financing a small firm can be achievedin three ways. The most preferable but at the same time the least likelyis self financing from retained earnings, otherwise, the firm will haveto resort to either one of the two following financial markets. Debt capitaland equity capital ( which strictly speaking is the same as retained earnings,both having their advantages and disadvantages. Only after 1979 did clearing banks startmaking loans with a maturity term in excess of ten years. Inthe case of a loan to smaller companies, the fixed interest rates are usuallyset at a premium over base rate ( 3% 6%). Larger companies who have agood credit rating will probably be offerred the premium on the inter-bankrate which is lower than the base rate. Loans are usually securedon the personal guarantee of the Directors or the owner of small companiesand in the case of larger ones, a charge is made against the assets ofthe company. If the charges are fixed, that means that they arelinked with a specific asset of the company. Floating charges aremade on the general assets. All bank loans are based on three elementswhich the company has to be able to satisfy. The interest rate demandedby the bank, the security demanded by the bank and the terms of repaymentwhich are open to individual arrangements between bank and borrower althoughthey usually consist of systematic amortization payments made over thefull time of the loan. A small company will have to ensureits capability of all three in spite of the fact that in comparisonto a larger company, it will be paying a higher interest rate, will berisking security based on the owners personal assets rather than companyassets and repayment terms will probably be more rigid rather thanflexible as banks rightly see the small company borrower as a higher risk. (This is explained later on when discussing the problems faced by the smallcompany in raising finance.)There are sources of loans other thanfrom banks. Companies usually resort to these financial institutionsas a last resort because their interest payments are fixed and if inflationfalls, this will make the borrowing very expensive. These financial sourcescan include pension funds, insurance companies, merchant banks, the EuropeanInvestment Bank and the ICFC. (Investment and Commercial Finance Corporation)There is also the medium term note openas an alternative which is a promisory note issued by the company promisingto pay a specified amount on a specified date. The procedure is forthe company to write the note and then to sell it in the market place. The interest rate can be fixed or may fluctuate and the maturity date ofthe note can be anything from under one year to as long as fifteen years. The small company may issue a debenture,which is a document issued in return for money lent. There are varioustypes of debentures but they all have some features in common. They areusually in the form of a bond, undertaking the repayment of a loan on aspecified date and with regular stated payments of interest between thedate of issue and the date of maturity. These dividends have priorityto be paid before any other dividend is paid to any other class of shareholder. The Companies Acts define the word debenture as including debenture stockand bonds. Often the terms debenture and bond or loan stock are interchangeablealthough I shall mention Bond and Loan Stock a little later on. There are a number of reasons why an investorwould chose debentures in preference to other forms of company financing. The major factor has to do with risk. Debt financing usually hasa fixed maturity. The investor enjoys priority both in interest andin the possibility of the company going into liquidation. In addition,debentureholders receive a fixed return on the investment and if the company doesnot make large profits, will continue to receive the fixed interest ratewhile the ordinary shareholders may have to wait the Boards decision onwhat and how much to pay out. Now we must look at why a company wouldissue debentures. The primary advantage is that the cost of the debtis known and is limited. If the company makes greater profits, theseare not shared out with the debenture holders. The cost of the debtis also limited because the risk of the debenture holders is lower thanthat of the shareholder. Also, and importantly, the interest paymentthat is made to the debenture holder is deductable against tax. Debenture issues are not an unqualifiedbenefit for the company. There are some disadvantages in that assumptionsthat were made ten years ago about the future trading position of the companymight prove to be wrong and the decision for long term debt unwise. Thecompany still has to repay the debt on the date of maturity. A warrant, is in principle, a call optionissued by the company on its own stock.The warrant holder is able to buya specified number of shares at a specified price on a specified date. Problems that face the young company will be discussed later but for acompany without a proven track record, raising finance can be difficult. The warrant can be used as an enticer. Debenture holders have nooption to benefit from the company which performs well but companies cantempt investors to their debenture stock by issuing convertibles or warrentsin return for lower interest rates in the immediate term. (a convertibleis a bond which can be converted to ordinary shares) The most common issuersof warrants and convertibles are risky companies, young companies and thosewhose risk profile is difficult to estimate. In other words, thosewho may not fare so well in the credibility stakes at the bank. The company can issue preference sharesand holders are part owners of the company, but preference shares are closerto loan capital than to ordinary shares.In the heirarchy they come higherthan ordinary shares and lower than debentures. The clear company advantageis that preference shares are a source of long term , though not permanent,finance and that the dividend does not have to be paid if company profitsdo not justify it. Preference shares are not really popular with companiesor investors. In 1993 they were only 7.7% of the total. There are a number of characteristicsshared by small companies which make it difficult for them to obtain funds. Their shorter trading records means that less is kno